Dean Foster's research

Papers in progress

"Adaptive variable selection with Bayesian oracles." (leiden talk, valencia poster) with Bob Stine.
"Honest Confidence Intervals for the Error Variance in Stepwise Regression" Bob Stine .
""Variable selection in data mining: Building a predictive model for bankruptcy," (talk) with Bob Stine .
"Learning, Hypothesis Testing, and Nash Equilibrium" (pdf), with H. P. Young.

Refereed Papers

"Universal Codes for Finite Sequences of Integers Drawn from a Monotone Distribution", with R. Stine and A.J. Wyner, To Appear in the IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, 2002.
"On the Impossibility of Predicting the Behavior of Rational Agents," (pdf) with H.P. Young, PNAS, 2001.
"Empirical Bayes Variable Selection, (pdf)" with Edward George, Biometrika, 2000.
"Introduction to the Special Issue," (in honor of David Blackwell) with R. Vohra, D. Levine, Games and Economic Behavior, (1999), 1 - 7.
"Regret in the On-line Decision Problem," with Rakesh Vohra, Games and Economic Behavior, 1999, 7 - 36.
"A proof of Calibration via Blackwell's Approchability Theorem," Games and Economic Behavior, 1999, 73 - 79.
"Local Asympotic Coding and the Minimum Description Length (pdf)," with Bob Stine , , IEEE Transaction on Information Theory, (1999) 1289 - 1293.
"Competitive Algorithms for Layered Graph Traversal," with A. Fiat, H. Karloff, Y. Rabani, Y. Ravid, and S. Vishwanathan, SIAM Journal on Computing, 1999.
"On the Nonconvergence of Fictitious Play in Coordination Games," with H. P. Young, Games and Economic Behaviour, 1998, 79 - 96.
"Asymptotic Calibration," with Rakesh Vohra, Biometrika, 1998.
"Calibrated Learning and Correlated Equilibrium," with Rakesh Vohra Games and Economic Behaviour., 1997.
"Precision and Accuracy of Judgmental Estimation," with I. Yaniv, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 10, (1997), 21 - 32.
"Learning with Hazy Beliefs," with H. P. Young, (1997) Institute Vienna Circle proceedings.
"Continuous Record Asymptotics for Rolling Sample Variance Estimators," with D. Nelson, Econometrica , 64, (1996), 139 - 174.
"An Axiomatic Characterization of a Class of Location in Tree Networks," with Rakesh Vohra, Operations Research., 1998.
A Simple Ancillarity Paradox," with Edward George, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 23, (1996), 233 - 242.
"Filtering and Forecasting with Misspecified ARCH Models: Making the Right Forecast with the Wrong Model," with D. Nelson, Journal of Econometrics, 67, (1995), 303 - 335.
"Graininess of Judgment Under Uncertainty: An Accuracy - informativeness Tradeoff," with I. Yaniv, Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 124, (1995), 424 - 432.
"Asymptotic Filtering Theory for Univariate ARCH Models," (JSTOR) with D. Nelson, Econometrica 62, (1994), 1 - 41.
"The Risk Inflation Criterion for Multiple Regression" (JSTOR) with E. George, The Annals of Statistics, 22, (1994), 1947 - 1975.
"A Randomization Rule for Selecting Forecasts," with Rakesh Vohra, Operations Research, 41, (1993), 704 - 709, with discussion by R. Clemen.
"Estimation up to a Change Point," (JSTOR) with Edward George, The Annals of Statistics, 21, (1993), 625 - 644.
"An Economic Argument for Affirmative Action," with Rakesh Vohra, Rationality and Society, 4, (1992), 176 - 188, with discussion by G. Loury, by D. Friedman, and by J. Heckman and T. Philipson.
"A Probabilistic Analysis of the K - location Problem," with Rakesh Vohra, American Journal of Mathematical and Management Sciences, 12, (1992), 75 - 87, winner of the 1993 Jacob Wolfowitz prize.
"Prediction in the Worst Case," (JSTOR) The Annals of Statistics, 19, (1991), 1084 - 1090. o
"Cooperation in the Short and in the Long Run," with H.P. Young, Games and Economic Behavior, 3, (1991), 145 - 156.
"Stochastic Evolutionary Games Dynamics," with H.P. Young, Journal of Theoretical Population Biology, 38, (1990), 219 - 232.
"Probabilistic Analysis of a Heuristic for the Dual Bin Packing Problem," with Rakesh Vohra, Information Processing Letters, 31, (1989), 287 - 290.

Books

Business Statistics: A Casebook, with Bob Stine and Richard Waterman , Springer-Verlag, 1998.
Business Analysis using Regression: A Casebook, with Bob Stine and Richard Waterman , Springer-Verlag, 1998.

Refereed Conference Papers

"Cost and trust in an on-line auctions," with Lyle Ungar and David Parks, AMET-98.
"Characterizing the generalization performance of model selection strategies," with D. Schuurmans and L. Ungar, ICML proceedings (1997).
"Competitive Algorithms for Layered Graph Traversal," with A. Fiat, H. Karloff, Y. Rabani, Y. Ravid, and S. Vishwanathan, in Proc. 32nd Symposium on Foundations of Computer Science, Puerto Rico, (1991), 288 - 297.